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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 10-J.Schum punts 47 yards to DAL 2, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-61-B.Goode.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.69 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model