4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP