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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model