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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 2-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model