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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 8-D.Kaser punts 60 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 16 for 6 yards (56-K.Toomer).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP