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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 75

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 33, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster pushed ob at LAC 49 for 16 yards (42-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP