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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 46

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model