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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 2-J.Lambo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP