Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

(6:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 36 for 8 yards (52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model