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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 21-A.Talib to DEN 16 for 1 yard (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP