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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 19 for 1 yard (58-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.85 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model