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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:11) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-E.Royal to CHI 14 for 5 yards (52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model