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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 46

Chicago Bears 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model