Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(14:02) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-E.Royal to CHI 30 for 11 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Glenn, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.41 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model