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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 14

Chicago Bears 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model