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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model