Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 72

Chicago Bears 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(3:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model