4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model