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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 5 at the 32
Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13
What Actually Happened
(3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts.
The Three Options
GO
+0.65 EP
What Happened
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP
KICK
+0.71 EP
Model's Pick
- 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
