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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to KC 24, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.62 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model