Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(:36) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to KC 22, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-41-B.Trawick.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.64 EP
55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model