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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 5-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model