Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(3:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to LV 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 38-T.Carrie to LV 29 for 9 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.29 EP
48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model