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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-A.Roberts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-33-E.Gaines, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model