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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 51

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 34-Z.Zenner right tackle to LA 49 for 2 yards (26-M.Barron).

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model