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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:04) 64-A.Donnal reported in as eligible. 30-T.Gurley up the middle to DET 2 for -1 yards (93-T.Walker, 96-S.Charles).

The Three Options

GO +4.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model