Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Detroit Lions 28

(5:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to DET 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-A.Roberts to DET 39 for 4 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model