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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 17

Detroit Lions 28 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.18 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model