4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 64

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to LA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP