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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to ARI 37, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model