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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 9-R.Quigley punts 36 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.62 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model