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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 9-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to NYJ 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP