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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 32 for 1 yard (32-J.Burris).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model