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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 47

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 17-C.Peake INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at ARI 34. 32-T.Mathieu ran ob at ARI 38 for 4 yards. Penalty on NYJ-15-B.Marshall, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model