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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 24 for 6 yards (54-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model