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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 9-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model