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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ARI 35, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 32 for -3 yards (17-C.Peake).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.59 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model