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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model