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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 15 for 1 yard (13-J.Huff; 42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model