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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model