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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 32

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model