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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 6-C.Sturgis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model