Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 74

Washington Commanders 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(4:17) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to PHI 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 30 for 14 yards (50-M.Spaight; 51-W.Compton).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.13 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model