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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.95 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP