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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 27 yards to BUF 13, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP