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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 14 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model