Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 17 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(13:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to SF 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-J.Kerley to SF 31 for 12 yards (35-M.Gillislee).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model