Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

(12:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to BUF 38, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-13-A.Burbridge.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.06 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model