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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.25 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model