Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Buffalo Bills 38

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 37 for 3 yards (13-A.Burbridge). PENALTY on BUF-56-L.McCray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 37.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model